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China's real estate "long and phoenix", the future trend to see three points

Industry news
2019/04/28 10:54
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The first quarter real estate data released on the 17th made people nervous again.

We measure the four indicators of the real estate market, and develop investment, sales, funds in place, and prosperity index.

Reflected in housing prices, in March 70 city housing price data, the new housing market grew by 65 cities, only 4 cities fell slightly, from the same year-on-year, 70 cities rose across the board, no one fell.

Zhang Xinglong

Is the property market stable?

From the specific data, real estate development investment in the first quarter increased by 11.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first two months, a record high. Sales increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2.8 percentage points. The growth rate of funds in place increased by 3.8 percentage points from January to February, and a v-type was taken out. The prosperity index also began to pick up, up 0.21 points from February.

Image source: National Bureau of Statistics

Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council on the 17th that the current property market has achieved four "stable".

"Overall, the real estate market is expected to be relatively stable, the land price is generally stable, the house price operation is relatively stable, and the real estate market is generally stable."

To sum it up, it is expected to be stable, stable land prices, stable prices, and overall stability.

On the 17th, Gu Yunchang, deputy director of the Housing Policy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, expressed optimism about the first-quarter real estate data at the China-Singapore Forum.

He believes that the real estate market performed better in March than in the previous two months, and the overall situation was stable and improved. It is reflected in two aspects. First, the growth rate of commercial housing sales has rebounded, and the sales area growth rate has narrowed. Second, the number of developers buying land has decreased year-on-year, and the downward trend is still obvious.

Gu Yunchang predicted that the 2019 real estate trend is likely to be low and stable.

Look at the property market after three points

For the future trend of real estate, Gu Yunchang believes that it depends on three points.

Look at the potential for development.

"In the future, with the development of China's urbanization, there are still a large number of houses to be covered." At present, China's urbanization is close to 60%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population is only 43%, which is still far from the developed countries. Urbanization means that people's housing needs will increase.

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