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Analysis of the status quo and development prospects of the real estate market in 2020

Classification:
Industry news
2020/08/27 09:43
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[Abstract]:

  From January to April 2020, the sales threshold for each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies has been lowered year-on-year, and the average sales price of real estate companies has generally declined. The sales completion rate of the monitored 39 companies is significantly lower than the previous year. Evergrande’s trading amount And sales area are both ranked first in the industry. The time affected by the new crown epidemic is difficult to predict, the real estate industry is more uncertain, and real estate companies are cautious about their 2020 sales targets.

  The sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies has been lowered year-on-year

  From January to April 2020, the sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies has been lowered year-on-year. As of the end of April, the thresholds for the TOP10 and TOP20 real estate companies' sales transactions amounted to 46.6 billion yuan and 27.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and 28.8% respectively. The threshold for the TOP100 real estate companies in the sales trader list is 3.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31%.

  From January to April 2020, Evergrande and Country Garden are developing strongly, with Evergrande taking a weak lead. In terms of trading amount, China Evergrande and Country Garden both entered the 200 billion camp, with 210.25 billion yuan and 183.59 billion yuan respectively. Vanke Real Estate followed closely behind, and these three companies have formed obvious fault advantages;

  According to the trading area, China Evergrande and Country Garden are far ahead, with a trading area of ​​more than 20 million square meters; only Vanke has a trading area of ​​10-20 million square meters; a trading area of ​​5-10 million square meters There are 3 companies in China; 14 companies are under 5 million square meters.

  According to the "China Real Estate Enterprise Sales Trader List for January-April 2020" recently announced by Crane, from the top 20 enterprises in terms of trading value, compared with the same period last year, it is found that 70% of the real estate enterprises are in the top four this year. The monthly average sales price was lower than the same period last year. Among them, China Resources Land, China Evergrande, and China Jinmao fell more than 15%. The average sales price of China Merchants Shekou (16.400, 0.06, 0.37%) bucked the trend and rose by 11.43% year-on-year.

  Among them, the average sales price of China Resources Land, China Evergrande and China Jinmao fell by more than 15% compared with the same period last year, and the decline in Poly's development was about 10%.

  The main reason for the decline in the average sales price is basically due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and the continuous strengthening of the promotion of relevant housing companies in the market, which has led to the average sales price level being weaker than the same period last year. On the other hand, factors such as the supply rhythm of these companies, city distribution and product structure are also one of the reasons for the decline in average sales prices.

  The sales of real estate companies improved in April, but the sales completion rate in the first four months was significantly lower than the previous year

  In April, 15 of the TOP20 real estate companies increased their monthly performance month-on-month, and 11 companies increased their monthly performance year-on-year. Among them, Country Garden achieved a full-caliber sales of 69 billion yuan in a single month in April, which continued to increase by 4.5% from the 66 billion yuan in March. Evergrande achieved full-caliber sales of 65 billion yuan in a single month in April, an increase of 4.7% from March.

  According to the incomplete statistics of Chinafang.com, according to 39 real estate companies that have announced their sales targets for 2020, combined with the sales data monitored by the Crane Research Center, the average sales target completion rate of the real estate companies that have announced their sales targets in the first four months is 20.06% , An overall increase of 7.65 percentage points compared to the first quarter, but still not as good as the completion of the same period in 2019.

  Among the 39 real estate companies monitored, 18 real estate companies have a sales target completion rate above the average. It is worth noting that only one company achieved a sales target completion rate of more than 30%, while the number of companies with a sales target completion rate of more than 30% in the same period last year was nine. Compared with 31 companies in the same period last year, the number of companies with a target completion rate of 20% to 30% has shown a significant decrease. In the same period last year, even those companies whose sales targets were at the bottom had their target completion rates above 15%. This year, Beijing Capital Land and Greentown China achieved a target completion rate of less than 15% in the first four months.

  Judging from the first four months of this year, like last year, Wharf is still the real estate company with the best sales tasks, with a sales target completion rate of over 30%, reaching 33.27%. This is mainly due to Wharf's initiative to slow down in recent years.

  Real estate sales targets are cautious in 2020

  As of early April 2020, 40 real estate companies have directly or indirectly announced their 2020 sales targets. Although most companies’ sales targets for 2020 have increased in varying degrees from their sales in 2019, the average growth rate is significantly smaller than before. The average growth rate of these 40 companies' sales targets in 2020 is less than 14%, a record low in recent years. With the slowdown in the industry's growth rate, especially when the time affected by the new crown epidemic is difficult to predict, the real estate industry has increased uncertainty, and real estate companies have chosen to be cautious. Among the 40 companies, 34 companies raised their sales targets, one kept the same, and five lowered their sales targets.

  It is worth mentioning that CCRE Real Estate, which has just hit 100 billion yuan in 2019, lowered its 2020 sales target to 80 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.9%. Hu Baosen, chairman of the board of directors of CCRE Real Estate, said that it is not easy to go from real estate sales of just over 20 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan in three years, but everything has two sides. The increase of 80 billion yuan in three years also hides high Disadvantages such as debt and low profits.

  At present, although my country's new crown epidemic has been basically contained, there are still many uncertainties in the real estate market, and real estate companies still need to work hard to achieve their previous sales targets. According to a report released by the China Housing Research Association a few days ago, the real estate industry is still under pressure in the second quarter, and short-term policies are mainly on the corporate side to support the restoration of the industry’s steady development and stabilize market expectations. Most real estate companies’ funds mainly come from sales collections and market financing. The epidemic has had an impact on the capital chain of real estate companies. Small and medium-sized real estate companies with weak anti-risk capabilities have accelerated their exit from the market. The increase in mergers and acquisitions of leading real estate companies has promoted further industry concentration. High-level officials recently reiterated their adherence to the positioning of "housing, housing, no speculation," and made it clear that they will not change the basic direction of real estate regulation and will not encourage real estate investment speculation as a means of stimulating economic growth under the pressure of economic growth caused by the epidemic.

  This epidemic has tested the marketing capabilities, financing capabilities, and cost control capabilities of real estate companies, and it has also made residents pay more attention to the quality of living. Product types, supporting facilities, construction quality, and property services will become the core competitiveness of future real estate companies.

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